"When circumstances change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" John Maynard Keynes.

I often start my column with great trepidation that, "There's nothing worth writing about this week," or alternatively, "Where in the world am I going to start, there's so much to report, so much has happened, I can't even organize my thoughts." While there may be some who readily agree that I can't even organize my thoughts on the best of days, I certainly have no shortage of topical and tasty topics this week. Let's start with exploding a myth.

The general public is just now starting, in small numbers and percentages to become aware of biodiesel and biofuels in general. Ethanol was creeping into their consciousness when the campaign of "Go Yellow, Go Green" was dropped from lack of progress in actually rolling out the availability of E85 (gasoline that is actually 85% ethanol). Indeed, I have long had a difficult time preventing my fingers from typing "methanol" when I mean ethanol. I have always held that ethanol is for drinking and methanol is for back rubs (and burning in various forms). After all, what idiot is going to burn bourbon in a lamp? (I wouldn't even form a sentence suggesting that someone might defile scotch whiskey in such a manner.) But despite the slow progress toward ethanol culture for cars, diesel is going strong in Europe.

The Europeans have filed a suit against Americans for unfair trade practices because of the blender subsidies (not to mention the producer subsidies that the Europeans themselves also offer along the route to retail from their own sources). The costs of vegetable oil feedstock to the transesterification process has skyrocketed and brought many biodiesel producers to a standstill or at least a much curtailed production schedule. Workers are being laid off in some plants and doom and gloom surrounds a lot of operations despite announcements that new biodiesel plants are being approved and constructed in a lot of areas too. But sounding the death knell of biofuels is not an occupational description just yet.

Nor is it likely to be. It is clear that the current political climate is such that the food versus fuels debate is being stirred by the media, but that is more controversy for controvery's sake than a real crisis. Prices for oil have gone through the roof, partly at least, because of the speculatory investments by big money managers for pension funds, insurance investment companies and the like. Food shortages, as I have long complained are a control and distribution problem, not a lack of production capacity. Shipping food to Myanmar [officially local long form: Pyidaungzu Myanma Naingngandaw (translated by the US Government as Union of Myanma and by the Burmese as Union of Myanmar)] is more likely to end up in the hands of the ruling Junta of military leaders and their cronies than to provide food for the flood victims, despite claims that there will be "long term" food shortages. The corruption and black marketeering in the supplying of food to famine and natural and man-made disaster relief is obscene, out-of-control, and unconscionable, and yet that is what happens in most cases. The trend now is to ask for money donations because with cash in hand, local aid workers seem to have little trouble buying food from local suppliers (albeit that in many cases they are the very black marketeers who stole food aid in the first place), but becuase the real problem is not food availability, but rather the lack of financial resources of the "victims" to be able to afford it when disaster induced inflation turns mere poverty into starvation.

That is not to say that Costco and other shelves have not, in recent days, been empty of rice due to rising costs and local hording of rice by some consumers and businesses, but this is, again, largely a media driven reaction. A friend of mine was seriously considering buying a hybrid car due to the combination of high gas prices and the more than double the gas mileage of the electric hybrid he was considering. It was a panic reaction to the high price of gas, and the fact that he planned a summer vacation of transcontinental driving. The facts, and the economics of this issue were that even a used hybrid was going to cost him some US$17,000, whereas gas was only 20% more expensive than it was for last Summer's cross-country trip. So, let's assume he drives 10,000 miles (far more than factual, but a mathematical convenience). If his current car gets 20 miles to the gallon (US liquid gallon), versus a (generous) 60 MPG for the hybrid, his cost difference from last year (at about US$3.20/gal.) versus US$4.00/gal now, amounts to $400. But if he spent the US$17,000 on the (used) hybrid, he would save a lot more, you say? He would, for US$17,000 investment (plus tax, license, destination charges, and here in Phoenix, at least, a dealer premium markup of about US$4000 to $5000 over MSRP [which we'll ignore to keep the calculations simple], he would save US$4.00 per gallon on 332 gallons, which amounts to US$1328 (plus 2/3's of the US$400 increase in cost versus last year for a net savings of US$266.66 so add the ) $267.00 = US$1595 for his Summer trip. Not that I'm "sneezing at" either US$400 or US$1595, but it does seem like less than a compelling argument for rushing out to spend US$17,000 on a new [used] car. Oh, yes, some rumors circulating are that waiting lists have reached up to 6 months for some models of hybrids here in Arizona (and I mean fairly common cars, not some exotic hybrid Ferrari, or Lotus).

It is nice to hear that people are "thinking greener" even if it is motivated by pain in the pocketbook. But that doesn't detract from the fact that most of the food vs. fuel argument stems from news media trying to grab attention, and some "environmental" groups seeking to stand in some of that media spotlight at least some of the time. There are a lot of reasons to believe that biofuels in general and biodiesel in particular are far from "dead", but let me digress a bit before we come back to the new lifeblood of the biofuels industry.

I wrote last week about David Krohn, and his colleagues and mentors at McGyan (and all those associated companies and licensing companies and Augsberg college from which most of the colleague spring). Well, from a separate note I stumbled over in which Development Manager David Wendorf of SarTec and McNeff Research Associates (owned by Larry McNeff, father of Clayton who was the Mc in McGyan) promised to call me, I sent him a reminder email, and I was delighted to hear from him the next day. He was enthusiastic about the attention their companies have received over the publicity they got. I didn't see it but they were featured on Good Morning America (I think that's the one he mentioned, although I can't tell one from the other of the network morning shows) and are getting calls and inquiries from all over the world. So, not that they, by any means "need" the public exposure, but here's a table from their website:



That comes from the SarTec website. So, thanks for the update Dave, and I hope your 3MM gal./year plant in Isanti MN is online in October as scheduled.

Novozyme, already fairly famous, is a principal sponsor in a project to create biodiesel using enzymes instead of catalysts, Biodiesel Magazine reports. Conscripted to this project by the Danish company, are Emmelev Biodiesel, Aarhus University, and the Danish Technical University. Several scientists have shown that biodiesel can be created using enzymes the Novozyme company spokesman told Biodiesel magazine, but the objective is to find a way to make this cost effective because current enzyme costs are too high to make this feasible. They also hope to be able to use feedstocks with higher free fatty acid (FFA) content.

Imperium Renewables that currently operates the largest biodiesel manufacturing plant in North America has been moaning about hard times of late, and it looks like it is not just about the painful rise in feedstock costs. Indeed, details of a lawsuit by Imperium's former employee, Kenneth Orr, have revealed that somewhere along the way, Imperium, through Orr's shrewd trading of feedstocks, earned US$58,000,000 in profit from these trades. Although they pulled their IPO (which, BTW,was "just" US$345,000,000 a fairly modest sum for a company making $58 million in profit without making anything, IMnsHO) and CEO Martin Tobias has also abandoned ship, along with CFO Marc Stolzman, and there is what Imperium's lawyers call, a "legitimate dispute" over how much is owed to Mr. Orr, but Orr's suit claims that they still owe him a 10% bonus on the US$58MM. The politically correct no longer call an end of year bonus a "Christmas" bonus, but US$5.8MM sounds a LOT like Christmas to me, and I mean ANY time of year!

It is sad to see the company or any business in trouble. So many of us had high hopes for Imperium in particular. I was especially impressed by their choice of location (Gray's Harbor, specifically, not just the Seattle area) but in reporting the story the Seattle Times also asserts that, "investors are shying away from the field."

That, you may be surprised to hear me say, could be a good thing. We don't need another sudden collapse of a most promising technology just because EVERYONE got in, inflated the values too rapidly and then panicked and packed their bags and left in a huff. Every new field tends to get a rush of enthusiasm from the make-a-quick-buck folks (and they very often do, Mr. Stolzman, mentioned earlier, is off to be VP of a diamond markeing company the Seattle Times says) then the serious folks remain when the initial glamor fades, which, the economists tell me is a normal segment maturing process. The smart people are still around, and will find and fix the problems in the end.

In that vein, let me also pass along to you some information I just received. There is a new conference schedule to take place in India, in the capital city of Delhi during September 17th through 19th of 2008. The name of the conference is: "The Algae Biofuel Summit 2008". The sponsor is listed as Growdiesel Climate Care Council,

B-196, Surajmal Vihar, Delhi-110092, India,

Telephones: +91 11 65803335, +91 11 32904064,







Speakers are from Russia, China, USA, Korea and New Zealand so far. More are expected but not confirmed. There are limited opportunities for "grants" of registration fee waivers and even accomodation subsidies for a few researchers or entrepreneurs (preference is for young innovators) and the conference brochure promises a spouses program, it even encourages attendees to bring children. Check out the website if you are interested in more details. I don't think I'll be attending, but maybe my invitation has just been delayed in the mail. ;o)

If you think it is all over but the shouting, you should rush out and buy some earplugs, 'cause you ain't heard nothin' yet. That's my opinion, but it is not as negative as it sounds. I'm expecting shouts of surprise, not necessarily dismay or disappointment (though there will doubtless be more than enough of that too). Carry a "loaner" handkerchief for friends' tears in the next few weeks I fear. Still, with the Puerto Rico primaries already declared by most major media outlets as a blowout Senator Clinton victory (nothing less was expected), there are just two more sets of ballots to be counted and the "elected" delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August will be decided upon. Umm, well, that is they will be decided upon to the extent that they can be.

Saturday's meetings of the Rules and Bylaws Committee allocated delegates from Michigan and Florida exactly as those states' delegations to the committee had asked. According to Donna Brazile, legendary Democratic organizer, insider and herself an officially "uncommitted" "super-delegate", Senator Obama's campaign representatives to the RBC (I hate three letter acronyms, but I was seduced into using it because someone said it was very "in" to call it that. [my apologies, sometimes I am weak.] ) actually had sufficient support at the meeting that he could have forced the issue of allocation of Michigan delegates to be strictly 50%/50%, but instead, he made it known that he wanted to at least make a conciliatory gesture by allowing Senator Clinton's side and extra 4 delegates. Clinton campaign senior advisor, Harold Ickes, railed that these delegates were being "stolen", and said that Senator Clinton's campaign officially was giving notice of reserving the right to appeal this decision to the Accreditation Committee prior to the August convention. Similarly, though barely less controversially, despite Senator Clinton's "win" in what Donna Brazile called the Florida "Beauty Contest" (since it had no legal standing by Democratic party rules, which rules are supported by prior US Supreme Court rulings, according to David Brooks on This Week with George Stephanopolous today) the Florida delegates were apportioned strictly 50/50 to the two candidates. All Michigan and Florida delegates, however, have been "discounted" by 50% to one half vote each as the officially sanctioned penalty for the states' having held their primaries on dates outside those that were acceptable to the Democratic National Committee.

Before I leave the "political arena" for this week, I can hardly ignore the attention that Scott McClellan, former Press Secretary to President Bush, has been receiving from the media. He was fairly disgusted when he was invited to leave the White House after discovering that he had been lied to by senior staff members, and lost credibility with the press as a result of passing on their claims of innocence (in the Valerie Plame, CIA operative, wife of [former] Ambassador Wilson identity leaks). Although initially he sought a book deal based on what was characterized as a favorable "insider" view of the presidency of George W. Bush, his recently released, What Happened account is being widely "criticized" in the press. Now let's be fair, although Carl Rove has said, "This doesn't sound like Scott," and Scott himself has been taking some pretty aggressive questioning from everyone in sight who hosts any "news-ish" or political show, I've been in a similarly highly controversial position and gotten some very good exposure on major media outlets, so I know how this (sometimes) works. Generally many [not all] radio and television producers like to have guests who are prepared to thoroughly prep the host and the producer up to the point of even including a "script" for the host to follow along. It is convenient because you can fairly accurately estimate how long the script will take, where to break for commercials, and if both sides stay at least close to the script provided by the guest, everything goes smoothly. It looks like Scott is remaining cool under pressure (and he had a fair amount of practice at the podium of the White House Press Room), but he IS getting the publicity that is going to make him a LOT of MONEY from book sales, and the "news" folks are able to make it look like they are revealing the conflict and the controversy behind the story.

Scott McClellan's book is surprising and revealing in many ways, not the least of which is that (as was shown in a video clip on Meet The Press with Tim Russert on NBC) when a reporter asked Bush if the Iraq invasion was a "war of necessity" or "of choice", President Bush actually didn't understand the question. He was bright enough to figure out that the 'right' answer that he wanted the American people to hear was "necessity", but he asked McClellan afterwards what the reporter had meant, and McClellan was stunned to realize that President George W. Bush really had blocked out the possibility that their might have been (as indeed there was) an element of choice in the decision to prosecute a war in Iraq. And despite Mr. Rove's opinion, Senator Obama said that McClellan's book, "just confirms what a lot of us have long believed."

This week was not dull in the entertainment world either. Sex and the City, the movie, opened this weekend. Crowds waiting to attend the 4:30PM show on Saturday here were so long they were starting to block access to the other theatres in the multiplex. We decided to wait until next week.

We did see Ironman starring Robert Downey Jr., Jeff Bridges and Gwynneth Paltrow. All these three performed admirably, although Bridges' character was a little too "programmaticly predictable", but he apparently enjoyed the opportunity to shave his head for the bald character, a fact that fooled one of my companions who actually attended middle school with him in Santa Monica (her best friend dated Beau Bridges, too). Gwyneth Paltrow, was also not put to any great challenges but my heart just melts to see her smile, so I didn't much care. I even forgave her the orange hair that sometimes passed as "strawberry blonde". Robert Downey was brilliant as always. We came away from the theatre worrying seriously if Downey could stay out of trouble, and indeed one of our company told a story about how, when being directed by Helen Hunt, she came to his trailer and laid down the law, that he WOULD NOT be permitted to come to work stoned or drunk or not knowing his lines, that he was there to work and she expected his best. I don't know where she got the story, but I hope that true or not, it will be a guidepost to his future stardom. His talent couldn't glow any brighter, and I would hate for him to become another James Dean/Marilyn Monroe tragedy. The screenwriters and director got it "just right" in balancing elements of action, romance, special effects, pseudo-science for the sci-fi fans, and comic book style legendary from the pen of Stan Lee and Marvel, with the incredible Hollywood epic tradition from Paramount Pictures. Oh, yeah, Leslie Bibb is a delectable bit of eye candy. With 5 movies already scheduled for the next year and a half, we'll be seeing more of her. And finally, not all villains are "thankless" roles, though these days, Arab villains get little sympathy from American audiences, which makes it worth mentioning, that Faran Tahir did a solid turn as the villain behind the villain who was really just a pawn of the real villain (I trust that was sufficiently muddled not to be a plot spoiler for anyone) :o) . Faran is listed as playing a character, Captain Robau, in the 2009 production of the next Star Trek Movie, in which Winona Rider appears as Amanda Grayson, in the early life of Captain Kirk (played by Chris Pine) but ironically the lovely Jennifer Morrison from the Fox Television series House plays character, "Winona Kirk".

There is another quote I heard this week that, as a writer, I found charming and can't close without passing along. Todd Purum of Vanity Fair magazine was one of the guests today on This Week with George Stephanopolous and he quoted E.M. Forster who said, "How can I know what I think, if I can't read what I write?" So, now that I've written, I think I know what I think.

BTW, you can subscribe to this column, I was vaguely aware of that, but didn't know until today that there actually is a growing list of subscribers from all over the world who "tune in" every week. I find that gratifying. I hope you, at least, find it informative, and better yet, entertaining.

Love and warm wishes,

Stafford "Doc" Williamson